The New Brunswick election: a victory for the 338Canada mannequin


On Monday evening, New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs led his Progressive Conservative Social gathering to a majority victory, securing 27 of the provinces 49 electoral districts with simply over 39 per cent of the favored vote. It was the nation’s first provincial election for the reason that pandemic started and, judging by the turnout price of 66 per cent, it definitely seems that voters didn’t chorus from exercising their rights due to the pandemic.

Since New Brunswick’s inhabitants is just below 780,000, or about 2 per cent of Canada’s inhabitants, political polls within the province are normally few and much in between. This time round nonetheless a complete of seven polls from six different pollsters had been made public through the quick 28-day election marketing campaign. How did they fare? And the way did the 338Canada mannequin carry out with this restricted knowledge?

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First the outcomes: Higgs’ PC gained 27 seats with 39.three per cent of the full vote. The NB Liberals gained 17 seats with 34.three per cent per cent—NB Liberal chief Kevin Vickers misplaced is election bid in Miramichi. The Greens took 15.2 per cent and held on to the three seats they held at dissolution. Lastly, the Folks’s Alliance gained two seats (which it already held) with 9.2 per cent of the vote.

The next desk compares the efficiency of every pollster with the election outcome. Particulars on the methodology could also be discovered here:


On the desk above, we first discover that each ballot underestimated the Liberals, overestimated the NDP (which solely fielded 33 candidates) and, apart from EKOS, underestimated the Folks’s Alliance.

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As soon as once more, Léger was essentially the most correct pollster with numbers near the precise outcomes for each social gathering besides the NDP. Mainstreet Analysis was within the discipline till the final weekend and likewise carried out nicely, and however overestimated Inexperienced help by as a lot as six factors. Nonetheless, contemplating the pattern dimension of Mainstreet’s last ballot, its outcomes had been inside the ballot’s margin of error for all events aside from the Greens.

Though EKOS had the worst top-line numbers of all (a tie between Liberals and PC at 32 per cent apiece), it did have the Liberals, PA and Greens inside the margin of error, nevertheless it underestimated the PC by 7 factors.

Lastly, Oraclepoll, Narrative, and MQO all overestimated the PC and considerably underestimated the PA. The grades on the desk above shall be added to the 338Canada Rating of Canadian Pollsters web page.

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As for the 338Canada projection mannequin, this was my first New Brunswick election, and likewise the primary election in a “small” Canadian province (to date, I had coated the Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and federal elections). The 2018 NB election polls had been fairly exact, however the seat outcomes had been fairly unpredictable.

On the provincial degree, the 338Canada common vote projections had been proper on the mark. Solely the PA and NDP outcomes had been outdoors of the projection’s confidence intervals, and simply barely so:



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[On the graph above, the coloured bars indicate the projection’s confidence intervals and the black dots, the election results.]

The seats projections had been fairly exact as nicely, accurately calling the PC majority because the more than likely state of affairs, in addition to figuring out the PC and Liberals seat totals spot on:


On the district degree, most projections hit the mark, however there have been some misses. Let’s begin with the ugly:

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In Miramichi, Liberal chief Kevin Vickers was projected in a statistical tie with PA incumbent Michelle Conroy. Vickers had been projected considerably greater due to the routine “chief bump”. Nonetheless, that didn’t materialize, and Conroy gained the district handily:



In Restigouche West, the mannequin badly overestimated the Greens, a lot that the ultimate projection was a toss up between the Greens and Liberals. The Liberals gained the driving by 40 factors:


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Ouch, that’s painful to take a look at.

In Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou, the place then-PC candidate Robert Gauvin had gained by 99 votes in 2018, the Liberals gained a shocking 84 per cent of the favored vote this time round, beating the PC by 75 (!!) factors. Whereas the mannequin accurately recognized the Liberals as projected favourites within the driving, it underestimated the margin considerably. Clearly, the voters of Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou had voted for Gauvin way over the PC banner in 2018.

To be honest nonetheless, the instances of Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou and Restigouche West couldn’t have been precisely projected with out particularly native polling, as a result of neither of those ridings adopted the provincial and regional traits on this election.

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Okay, that was the “ugly”, now let’s take a look at some “fairly”.

Right here was the projection in Memramcook-Tantramar, the place Inexperienced MLA Megan Mitton gained re-election:



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Right here is Moncton Northwest, the place PC MLA Ernie Steeves additionally gained re-election:



And so forth.

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You could now examine all 49 driving projections with the election outcomes on the 338Canada New Brunswick page.

The vital factor to recollect is that fashions like 338Canada aren’t excellent, just because they’re not meant to be excellent—with restricted assets, it’s statistically not possible to name all native elections accurately. Electoral fashions utilizing publicly accessible knowledge are supposed to color the overall image of the political panorama, and, whereas most ridings normally comply with provincial and regional traits, there are exceptions in each election.

However, after overlaying 5 basic elections, the 338Canada mannequin has accurately recognized the winner in 90 per cent all districts (651 of 723).

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Right here is the entire breakdown of protected, possible, leaning and toss up projections so far:

The following provincial election in Canada is scheduled to be held in Saskatchewan in late October. Voting intentions polls—a rarity within the province—have to date indicated that Premier Scott Moe and the Saskatchewan Social gathering ought to win re-election with relative ease. We’ll comply with the numbers as we get nearer to election day.

Until… British Columbia goes subsequent?

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Both approach, we’ll see you there.

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